Absolutely gutted.

The United States Men’s National Team’s 2-1 lost to Trinidad & Tobago tonight, an utterly shocking result which means the U.S. will miss the World Cup for the first time since 1986.

Traveling this summer I ran into a lot of Brits. While we speak the same language, Americans and Brits seem to organize words into different, unique phrases. One phrase I learned this summer comes to mind right now: “absolutely gutted.”

I am absolutely gutted (read: heartbroken, distraught, shocked, etc.) by the result tonight, specifically the fact that the U.S. will miss the 2018 World Cup. Sitting at the bar after the game I was speechless, head down in disbelief, trying to process what just happened. Spare my family and a few good friends, soccer is the longest-standing constant in my life. I have been fortunate enough to play in upwards of 200 games, to referee in over 150 and coach in another 100 or so. Further, I have traveled to six USMNT games in the last three years.

As a fan of the USMNT, and more broadly as a proponent of the growth of soccer in this country, the performance tonight is incredibly disappointing and, to reiterate, I am absolutely gutted. But you shouldn’t feel bad for me: I’m an adult and this result will have no discernible effect on my life, excluding the three or four days of day drinking I’ll miss out on next summer.

That being said, you should feel bad for two parties: youth soccer players in the United States and Christian Pulisic.

Youth soccer players all around the United States idolize the USMNT, at least they did previously. Growing up and to this day the most popular game in America for youth soccer players between the ages of 7 and 15 is fittingly called “World Cup.” For those who are not familiar players form teams of two, the goalie punts out the ball and the players all try to score on the same goal, yelling the name of their country as they shoot the ball. “ARGENTINA!” or “PORTUGAL!”, players yell as they poke the ball towards goal. When I was a kid everyone used to fight to be USA and impersonate Landon Donovan as they played, perhaps trying to recreate one of his goals from the World Cup. But moving forward who knows – the fights may now be over who gets to be Portugal or Argentina, the impersonations of stars around the world instead of American star Christian Pulisic. American youth soccer players deserve your empathy, as they deserve a chance to watch the United States in the World Cup.

Speaking of Christian Pulisic he is the second party you should feel sorry for. He did everything he could to will the United States to the World Cup, scoring or assisting on 12 of the 17 goals the team scored in the ten qualifying matches. He is 19 years old, by far the USMNT’s best player and a star in Germany, starting on a regular basis for Borussia Dortmund – the second-best team in the league. He scored again tonight and deserved a chance to prove himself on the international stage, but it was not to be. The quota on Christian Pulisic impersonations by youth players will no doubt be missed next summer, which is unfair both to Pulisic and the young players who idolize him.

As a quick aside, the USMNT needs to clean house. Fire everybody. Then fire everybody who was in charge of firing everyone else. There is no easy answer to the question “How should soccer players developed in the United States?” But as a neutral observer I believe the next administration, coach and parents of budding stars should steal concepts from Pulisic’s upbringing, which involved an emphasis on unstructured games and futsal.

One last note: while I am not absolutely gutted for this party, I do feel bad for the casual soccer fan. Soccer is a great game – to play, to coach, to ref, to watch – and many Americans only tune in once every four years. This World Cup the United States will not be playing and as a result many people won’t bother tuning in at all, missing out the beauty (or perhaps agony) of the world’s game. See you again in five years for the 2022 World Cup, if we can make it there.

 

 

A game-by-game analysis of the Gophers Football schedule based on predictive models and game spreads

Unlike many new coaches, PJ Fleck is not coming into his new position as Head Coach with an empty cabinet, as the Gophers return most of their starters from a 9-4 team last year. However, determining what to expect from a record standpoint this year is difficult, especially given a new system will be in put in place and a new Quarterback will be learning on the job.

In the analysis below I take a look at the Gophers football schedule on a game-by-game basis based on two respected college football computer models and already-released game spreads.

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The inputs:

People often roll their eyes at or ignore statistics-based approaches, but their accuracy can be validated using historical game-by-game results. For this analysis I used two respected, predictive football models: Bill Connely’s S&P and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Bill Connelly has written an excellent preview of the Gophers 2017 season, and his win probabilities are included at the bottom. ESPN’s FPI win probabilities can be found here. I have summarized them below for quick reference:

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Further, Vegas spreads can be helpful in analyzing and setting preseason expectations. If a certain spread is “off” by more than a few points sharp bettors will put forward large bets until the spread shifts, thus becoming accurate. As of now spreads have been set for eight games this year.

Specific game spreads (via 5Dimes):

vs. Buffalo: – 26.5 (26.5 point favorite)

vs. Maryland: -10.5

@ Purdue: -11

vs. Michigan State: -4

vs. Illinois: -13.5

@ Iowa: +3

@ Northwestern: +5.5

vs. Wisconsin: +10

Based on the outcome of 17,000 games over multiple decades, spreads can be directly correlated to win probabilities. For example, six-point favorites win 66% of the time. Using the eight available spreads above I included the following win probabilities in my analysis, assuming that if the spreads were off by too much it would have adjusted already.

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The method:

 

Given the concepts outlined above, I took game-by-game win probabilities from Bill Connelly’s S&P and ESPN’s FPI and combined those win probabilities with Vegas spreads to analyze the likelihood of various season-long outcomes.

Specifically, I calculated an “Average Win Probability” for each game by averaging each game’s win probability per ESPN’s FPI, per Bill Connelly’s S&P and per the spread (if available). The results of this are shown in the image below:

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Using the Average Win Probability for each individual game I then calculated the likelihood of each season-long win/loss record.

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The results:

 

I then used the same approach to analyze the Big Ten portion of the schedule separately.

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The takeaway:

 

To me the schedule can be broken down into three groups: should-be wins, toss ups and likely losses.

Should-be wins: Buffalo, vs. Middle Tennessee, vs. Maryland, at Purdue, vs. Illinois.

Toss ups: At Oregon State, vs. Michigan State, at Iowa, vs. Nebraska, at Northwestern.

Likely losses: At Michigan, vs. Wisconsin.

Whether this season can be labeled as a success will likely come down to the “toss up” games. For me, Big Ten play takes precedence over non-conference games, so the most important games on the schedule are Michigan State (projected to be down this year), Iowa and Nebraska.

Switch those three games to wins in the model and the Gophers likelihood of winning eight or more games jumps from 22% to 64%. And the likelihood of nine wins or more jumps from 7% to 33%.

Win two or three of the games and the Gophers should be competing for a Big Ten West title as they enter the final two games, at Northwestern and vs. Wisconsin.

However, with losses at Iowa and vs. Nebraska the Gophers will quickly find themselves out of contention and instead competing for bowl eligibility.

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Spreadsheet link for those curious:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pkeQnsbDFS6tYhjvm86di1BxXtwfiPy3Yxc-a3lhv-E/edit?usp=sharing

Comparing B1G Football Season Ticket Prices: A Comprehensive Overview

By now all Gophers Football season ticket holders are likely aware: prices are set to increase dramatically over the next three years. Here’s the big question: how will the new season ticket prices compare to the prices of football season tickets around the Big Ten?

Let’s first look at a comparative chart, which is followed below by seating charts and pricing information for nine Big Ten Schools.

(All data pulled directly from the school/fundraising websites, sources in the comments below)

Comparative Chart:

Minnesota Gophers – (Gophers prices do not include $310 base price):

2015 Prices:

2016 Prices:

2017 Prices:

Nebraska (2014 Prices):

Iowa (2014 Prices):

Wisconsin (2014 prices):

Northwestern (2014 Prices):

Purdue (2014 Prices):

East Division Teams:

Michigan State (2014 Prices – they have not changed since 2012):

Michigan (2015 Prices):

Penn State (2015 Prices):

No one likes math, so I will follow up tomorrow with another post comparing prices in certain seating areas and insert some cool charts and stuff!

And remember my sources for charts and prices are in the comments below.

Updated B1G West Division Title Routes

After a 59-17 beat-down of Nebraska over the weekend the Badgers are now in a great position to win the B1G West Division title race. That being said, the Gophers control their own destiny, as a 2-0 finish would win them the division. Iowa wins the division with a 2-0 finish combined with a Gophers loss in one of their last two games. The chart is much simpler this week and the scenarios break down as follows:

CLICK HERE FOR THE SPREADSHEET —- B1G West Title Routes – UPDATED as of 11_16

Key Takeaways:
	Minnesota and Wisconsin control their own destiny, as a 2-0 finish by either team would win the division. Iowa needs to win both remaining games to win the division, along with a Gophers loss in one of their last two games as the Gophers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
	If neither Minnesota or Iowa win out Wisconsin will win the division title, assuming they win one of their two remaining games.
	There are no longer any scenarios in which the division could end up in a three-way tie.
	After a 59-17 loss on Saturday Nebraska is in trouble. Their only hope for a division title involves Wisconsin losing both games, the Gophers and Hawkeyes both going 1-1, and winning their final two games themselves.

Routes to the B1G West Title (excluding 3-way ties)

I’ve uploaded a spreadsheet which includes all potential routes to the B1G West Title. Take a look:

UPDATE***: I fixed a few errors in the spreadsheet and in the article below. A previous version stated their were five “routes” to a 3-way tie when there are in fact only three routes to that result.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD SPREADSHEET WITH COLORS AND CHARTS AND STUFF: “B1G West Title Routes – UPDATED

Routes to the B1G West Title by team (excluding 3-way ties):
Nebraska	17
Minnesota	19
Wisconsin	17
Iowa	8
Routes assuming Nebraska beats Wisconsin, all else the same:
Nebraska	15
Minnesota	9
Wisconsin	2
Iowa	4
Routes assuming Wisconsin beats Nebraska, all else the same:
Nebraska	2
Minnesota	9
Wisconsin	15
Iowa	5
Key Gophers Takeaways
If the Gophers beat Ohio State this weekend Minnesota has 12 routes to a division title (excluding 3-way ties). If the Gophers lose they have 7 routes.
If the Gophers lose to Ohio State this weekend, all 7 routes to a title involve beating both Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road.
NEBRASKA VS WISCONSIN HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS:
If Wisconsin beats Nebraska this weekend Wisconsin has 15 routes to a division title (excluding 3-way ties). If they lose they only have 2 routes.
If Nebraska beats Wisconsin this weekend Nebraska has 15 routes to a division title (excluding 3-way ties). If they lose they have 2 routes.
There are three*** scenarios in which the B1G West finishes in a three-way tie. Tiebreakers get incredibly complicated, but here are the rules pulled directly from the Big Ten website: – “(b)    If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made.  If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. 1.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other. 2.    The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division. 3.    The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6). 4.    The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents. 5.    The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll.  In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game. 6.    The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative. 7.    The representative will be chosen by random draw.” – If a 3-way tie were to occur the tiebreaker would move to #3 , as the teams involved in each of the scenarios would have head-to-head records of 1-1 and multiple teams (if not all 3) would have division records of 5-2. – The wording in “Tiebreaker 3” above is kind of ambiguous. Are the records of the three teams tied compared against the 4th place finisher? Or is the tie broken by comparing the teams’ cumulative records against the teams who finish 4-6? – It’s past midnight and I’m confused. We’ll fight that battle next week.